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statistical
competency
1943
Robert Strange McNamara develops his love of numbers as a student at Harvard
Business School and then as its youngest assistant professor at 24.
McNamara applied this rigorous mathematical statistics during the
Second World War as part of an elite Pentagon team called Statistical
Control.
"I was a Statistical Control Officer. The purpose of the
statistics we gathered was to lay a foundation for operational planning." -
Robert McNamara
Before this, the military was supply blind.
It
didn't know, the type, quantity, or location of spare airplane parts.
Making armament procurement more efficient saved $3.6 billion this
year.
McNamara epitomizes the
hypercompetitive rational
executive who relies on numbers and who can apply quantitative skills to
any industry he focuses
on.
The body count was the data point defining a statistically
engineered era.
Robert McNamara, a life-long manager,
showed little interest in
people.
"In eighth grade social studies, on a rotating basis,
someone in the class was required to bring a clipping from the newspaper and
read the paragraph with the body count out loud. My teacher died with her
family a few years later in a mysterious fiery accident after a political
rally."- AA
1946 Tex Thornton, a colonel under whom McNamara had served,
put together a group of former officers from the Office of Statistical Control
to go into business together.
Thornton had seen an article in
Life magazine portraying Ford as being in dire need of reform.
Henry Ford II, himself a World War II veteran from the Navy, hired the
entire group of ten, including McNamara.
McNamara had
Ford
adopt computers to construct models to find the
most efficient, rational
means of production, which led to much rationalization.
November 9, 1960 Robert Strange McNamara becomes the first
president of Ford Motor Company from outside the Ford family.
As the
CEO of Ford his salary ran to
$3 million dollars per year.
December 2, 1960
John F. Kennedy
picks up a copy of
Time magazine and reads an article about Robert Strange McNamara and
his career.
Kennedy offers McNamara the position of either
Secretary of
Defense or Secretary
of the Treasury; McNamara accepts the post of Secretary of Defense on the
condition of having the
right of final approval in official appointments to the DoD, with Kennedy
replying: "It's a deal."
McNamara's salary as Defense Secretary paid
only $25,000 per year.
According to Special Counsel Ted Sorensen,
Kennedy regarded McNamara as the "star of his team, calling upon him for advice
on a wide range of issues beyond
national
security, including business and economic matters."
"McNamara was a
numbers guy insisting on getting data on everything.
Only by applying
statistical rigor could decision makers understand a complex situations and
make the proper choices." - Kenneth Cukier and Viktor
Mayer-Schönberger
2004 Following ratios
compiled using data from National Safety Council Estimates, a report
based on data from The National Center for Health Statistics, the US
Census Bureau and 2003 mortality data from the Center for Disease
Control.
You are:
17,600 times more likely to die from
heart disease than from a
terrorist
12,571
times more likely to die from cancer than from a
terrorist
11,000
times more likely to die in an airplane accident than from
a terrorist plot involving an
airplane
1048 times more likely to die from
a car accident than from a terrorist
attack
404 times more likely
to die in a fall than from a
terrorist
87 times more likely
to drown than die in a
terrorist
13 times more likely to die in
a railway accident than
from a terrorist
12 times more likely
to die from
accidental suffocation in bed than from a terrorist
9 times more
likely to choke to death
on your own vomit than die in a terrorist
8 times more likely
to be killed by a police officer
than by a terrorist
8 times more likely
to die from accidental
electrocution than from a terrorist
6 times more likely
to die from hot weather
than from a terrorist
"If one
were to consider the possibility of being
killed or injured in a terrorism attack versus
what could possibly happen
when we get into an automobile, perhaps our fears would diminish." - Bobby
Fraker
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