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"The global economy is
a rigged game, rigged so Third World politicians, rich investors and global corporations win
and American
taxpayers lose." Patrick J.
Buchanan
"Nearly 70 percent of world trade is controlled by
just 500 corporations, and one
percent of all multinationals own half the total stock of foreign direct
investment. In both the U.S. and across the globe, many large corporations -
either directly or through intermediaries - are obeying the implacable logic of
capital by creating barriers to entry, stifling local economies, and racing to
liquidate finite resources. " - Donald O. Mayer
"Until our global economy is fueled by more than unfettered
markets and an insatiable appetite for
profit at the expense of
human dignity,
history will repeat itself." - Marie
Dennis
"The threat posed by
humans to the
natural environment is nothing compared to
the threat to humans posed by global
environmental policy." Fred L.
Smith
"To base an economy on
endless building and continuos population growth is greed disguised as progress." - Tim Viselli
"Edward Abbey once said that "an
economic system that can only expand or expire
must be false to all that is human." Some part of
society must soon step up and begin to figure
out how to end "progress", if not reverse it, until the world reaches a steady state of
ecological sustainability." - Fred S.
Barker
In 2007 the United States owed $10 trillion, nearly
a quarter of the global debt total of $44
trillion.One of the founding premises of unregulated
trade is that it will reduce the
temptation of participating nation states to engage in armed conflict
and yet there are too many emerging signs of
discontent from different places on the
Earth and from varying
ideologies to continue to
marginalize those who
question the wisdom of an unfettered global corporatism and the colossal
disparities in the distribution of wealth
.
If we lived on a socially
perfected Earth
and we had limitless supplies of fossil fuel global
free trade would be all that it was
promised to be in which not just jobs but also goods, humans
and capital freely flowed from
one country to another.
Everyone would do what he was best at, and
we all would be richer for it but unfortunatly
we do not live on a socially perfect
Earth with a limitless supply of fossil fuel.
Global free trade
economists
believe we
should export lowbrow jobs but do the 'creative'
work ourselves,
thus keeping our
hands clean and
our wages high.
This notion assumes that God has anointed
American aristocracy to be the
Master and Commander of the
Earth while the rest of the people of the
Earth have been chosen to do the menial
work.
What will less
talented American workers do if there are not enough
'creative' jobs to go around? Will they be
retrained to do something else? Or will they
move - or be moved - to the nations where their jobs were outsourced, as
free trade theory calls for?
Americans lowered
trade barriers to Japan and a large
part of our vehicle and electronic
manufacturing was outsourced to
Japan. Japanese corporate
culture of keiretsu (close business
relationships) works so that foreign companies
are excluded. So skilled work was
outsourced to Japan.
Anime
uses creative skills but how many
Americans are drawing cartoons in the most
prominent creative media
of Japan?
None! The lowest paid workers in Japan draw anime!
Yoshitake Ogata of the Anime Union, which represents freelance
illustrators, said: "However keen they
are when they come in, the reality is that they
cannot live on the pay. There are
animators with 10
years experience earning less than
$20,000 a year. In
the end, they have to quit."
The main factor holding down pay is the
availability of cheap labor in East Asia. Japanese
production companies now
outsource to
illustrators in South Korea, the
Philippines and
China who do much of their routine
work.
Global
free trade
economists argue that
eventually other countries will raise
their living standards and then
we will all compete on an
equal footing.
What if the average
standard of living does not go up?
Will Americans have to lower
our standards until the rest of the
Earth catches up?
With the ongoing
population
explosion it is unlikely the average
Earth standard per capita income will ever catch
up with standard middle class
American expectations.
To
remain competitive on an
Earth in which billions of
workers are paid one
dollar a day and have absolutly no benefits, and in which
corporations need not
worry about the
environmental
destruction of the Earth, requires Americans to drastically lower
our own standard of
living.
"We are often told that Americans won't do that job,' but never does a
businessman or politician add the
other half of that argument, namely,
at the meager wage that I am willing to pay'." - Gary Peters
A
much ballyhooed success of the North
American Free
Trade Agreement has been the opening
of Mexico to American
industrial agricultural
corporations, who are now selling
millions of bushels of maize south of the border.
Why would Mexico, whose
people still subsist on
maize, whose farmers still grow more maize than any
other crop, ever buy
maize from an American farm corporations?
Because
American industrial agricultural
corporations can sell it much more
cheaply than any Mexican farmer can.
How? American government writes
subsidy checks to
American industrial agricultural
corporations encouraging them to
undersell Third World farmers.
"Our
system is so complicated - ie. rigged - that
it's almost impossible to know how much agricultural
subsidies cost
American taxpayers. Since 2000 the
American government paid out $1.3 billion to "farmers"
who don't farm. They were simply "compensated" for owning land previously used
for farming. Cash payments have cost $172 billion over the last decade, and $25
billion in 2005 alone, nearly 50% more than what was
paid to families receiving welfare. These
numbers barely tell the story of our appallingly immoral agricultural
corporatism.
Subsidies combined with trade
barriers (another term for
subsidy) prop up the price of
food for
consumers at home and hurt
farmers abroad. This keeps Third World nations impoverished,
economically dependent and
politically unstable.
Subsidies wreak havoc on the
ecosystem. One small example: There's a
6,000-square-mile dead zone in the Gulf
of Mexico. It's so depleted of oxygen because of algae blooms
caused by fertilizer runoff that shrimp and crabs at the Louisiana shore
literally try to leap from the water to
breathe. Most of the fertilizer comes from a few Midwestern counties that
receive billions in subsidies (more
than $30 billion from 1997 to 2002 - Environmental Working Group). Also consider that
American farming is hugely energy intensive.
Those energy costs are not fully borne by the producer, so in effect the
taxpayers is paying for
greenhouse emissions that do not benefit
him." - Jonah Goldberg
A river of cheap
American corn began flooding into Mexico after NAFTA took effect in
1994.
A 2003 report by the
Carnegie
Endowment says this flood of
subsidized corn has washed away 1.3 million
small farmers. Unable to compete, they left
their land and illegally
immigrated to the United
States to pick crops - former farmers have
become illegal alien
day laborers. Now they have
learned that
construction jobs pay better and
refuse to work in the
industrial agricultural sector.
Cheap
American corn in Mexico threatens all
humanity. The small Mexican
farmers who grow maize in southern Mexico are
responsible for
maintaining the genetic diversity of
the species.
While American
industrial farm corporations raise a
small handful of genetically nearly
identical hybrids, Mexico's small farmers in
the past grew hundreds of different, open pollinated
varieties, commonly called landraces.
Monsanto produces the nearly identical hybrid corn
seed. The seed from this genetically altered hybrid corn is unviable and will
not grow. Each year a new supply of seed must be purchased from
Monsanto.
Maize originated in southern Mexico
where it was domesticated from teosinte, a
wild grass. Scientists at four universities analyzed the
DNA sequences of 774 genes in strains of
teosinte and corn. They found that a small group of these genes were alike in
all corn strains, but far more varied in teosinte strains. This implies that
these genes, because they shaped corn like traits, were bred for during
domestication.
This
genetic diversity,
created over the course of 10,000 years by
human genetic
manipulation, represents some of the most precious and irreplaceable
genetic information on Earth. These landraces will
survive only as long as the
farmers who cultivate them do.
"Nearly all of the crops in the U.S. Department of
Agriculture's database of approved genetically engineered varieties have been
modified for resistance to certain insects or to tolerate applications of
herbicides. None has been shown to increase intrinsic crop yields, nor do any
have traits for drought tolerance. Biotechnologists are finding drought
tolerance to be a major technical challenge. Meanwhile, traditional farming
systems have demonstrated their effectiveness in raising yields and improving
drought tolerance; they should receive the lion's share of attention as a route
to increasing food production." - Doug Gurian-Sherman
In the 2006 Mexican Presidential election it was
revealed that for every maquiladora job created
(job created by NAFTA) there were four jobs lost in the Mexican agricultural
sector. "The global free
trade economy is a
disaster for the
environment, a
disaster
socially, a disaster
for small farmers, it drives wages down and is a
giveaway of sovereign power to corporate and goverment bureaucracies.
Economic globalization is not satisfying
human needs. This doesn't lift all boats, it's
lifting yachts. Eventually the only way
order can be maintained is through oppressive means.
The solution: site here to sell here."- Jerry
Mander.
Globalization has created
interdependent
systems spread across the face of the
Earth. From food production to financial transfers, the
electricity grid to the internet, critical American infrastructures are linked to one
another in an interlocking web of
connections.
Interdependent networks are
vulnerable to the unintended
consequences of
interdependence. When one
"domino" falls a cascading set of "dominos" may fall in every direction.
As an example take the interdependent electricity grid.
Intelligent
problem solving suggests Americans encourage "distributed energy
production" which means having lots of
small generating plants rather than a few large plants. This is one
way to reduce the "domino" effect from
creating large scale power outages. Unfortunately vested interests would
no longer be able to control
resources.
When
American aristocracy depends on
other nation states to provide
America with 'necessary'
resources Americans lose
freedom by having to
protect those
resources. At this time
America has over 1.4 million
men and women
in uniform.
At
the end of 2005 69,000 troops are stationed in Germany and 40,000 troops are
stationed in Japan. Why does America need to
have 109,000 men and
women in Germany and Japan?
The claim that
global "free"
trade involves a race to the bottom is
valid.
Individuals who go through major
life changes due to income reduction caused
by outsourcing show a significant
increase in mental illness,
suicides and family breakdowns. These are hefty
human and social
costs that global free
trade
economists
conveniently forget to plug in to their equations.
"People do lose their jobs as a result of
globalization, and it's painful for those who lose their job." -
George W. Bush
"Unemployment makes
people very unhappy." - Carol Graham,
co-director of the Center on Social and
Economic Dynamics, Brookings
InstituteThe recent exponential increase in the
power of corporate govermental bureaucracies to challenge
other nations traditions,
environmental,
social and business laws on behalf of global
free trade exporters assures us that the
fight to keep our standard of
living from being drastically
reduced will not be an easy fight for
working class
Americans to
win.
Working class Americans must use
courage and vision to lift the fog in
which global free
trade
economists,
international
corporations,
American aristocracy, naive dreaming 'liberals'
and opinionated
neo-con or compassionate conservatives' have shrouded this
whole sordid, greedy, evil
business.
"There is more on the table than sugar
when it comes to the Central American Free Trade Agreement. An article on the pros
and cons of CAFTA would be of more interest than an editorial that says, "It
defies all economic reason for America
to grow most of the sugar it consumes."
Historically one of the factors aiding the
demise of a civilization was due to that
civilizations dependence on outside sources for
food coupled with the variable conditions of war and climatic conditions. What will be the
effect of CAFTA on American agriculture in
general? For example, what will happen
to the avocado growers and other
sources of food production in California? Will these types of
questions be addressed before CAFTA is
pushed through Congress?" -Carol M. Harder
The United Nations children's agency,
UNICEF, stated in annual State of the World's
Children report in December 2004 that out of the 2.2 billion of the Earth's
children:
640 million lack adequate shelter; 500 million have no
access to sanitation; 400 million lack safe water; 270 million receive no healthcare;
140 million, mostly girls, receive no education; 90 million are severely deprived
of nutrition; 10 million children younger than 5
die each year of diarrhea or measles; and 2
million are exploited by the global
commercial
sex industry.
"Too many
governments are making informed,
deliberate choices that actually hurt childhood," - UNICEF Executive
Director Carol Bellamy.
A UNICEF study in 2007 looked at childhood in
over 20 developed countries and found that America and Great Britain ranked
last in childhood well-being. Lower rankings were the result of less spending
on social programs and "dog-eat-dog"
competition for jobs that lead to
adults spending much less time with their children.
America was at the bottom in health and safety
because of high rates of child mortality and accidental
deaths. America has the highest rate of children
living in single parent homes and
has one of the highest rates of children living in
poverty.
"Our
global economy is
outgrowing the capacity of the Earth to support
it, moving our early twenty-first century civilization ever closer to decline and
possible collapse.
In our
preoccupation with quarterly
earnings reports and year-to-year economic growth, we have lost sight of how
large the human enterprise has become relative to the Earth's resources. A century ago, annual growth in
the global economy was
measured in billions of dollars.
Today it is measured in trillions.
As a result, we are consuming
renewable
resources faster than they can
regenerate. Forests are shrinking, grasslands
are deteriorating, water tables are falling,
fisheries are collapsing, and soils are eroding.
We are using up
oil at a pace that leaves little time
to plan beyond peak oil. And we are
discharging greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere faster than nature can absorb them,
setting the stage for a rise in the Earth's
temperature well above any since agriculture began.
"Can we just realize that there are limits to
growth? That "smart growth", at best, delays the moment when we must concede
the limitations of a finite world? After observing the
mindless expansion of the Los Angeles region, predicated on a future of cheap
energy that will not be realized, I have to ask, are we smarter than a colony
of bacteria that reproduces and proliferates until it suddenly dies off from an
exhaustion of resources?" - David M.
Marquez Our twenty-first century civilization is not the first
civilization to move onto an
economic path that was
environmentally
unsustainable.
Many earlier civilizations also found themselves in
environmental trouble. As Jared
Diamond notes in Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, some
were able to change course and avoid economic
decline. Others were not.
We
study the archeological sites of Sumerians, the Mayans,
Easter Islanders, and
other early
civilizations that were not able to make
the needed adjustments in time.
Fortunately, there is a consensus emerging among
scientists on the broad outlines of the
changes needed. If economic progress
is to be sustained, we need to replace the
fossil fuel based, automobile centered, throwaway economy with a new economic model. Instead of being based on fossil
fuels, the new economy will be powered by abundant
sources of renewable energy: wind, solar,
geothermal, hydropower, and biofuels. Instead of being centered around
automobiles, future transportation systems will be far more diverse, widely
employing light rail, buses, and bicycles as well as cars. The
goal will be to maximize mobility,
not automobile ownership.
The throwaway economy
will be replaced by a comprehensive reuse/recycle economy. Consumer
products from cars to
computers will be designed so that they can be
disassembled into their component parts and completely recycled. Throwaway
products such as single-use
beverage containers will be phased out.
The good news is that we can already see glimpses
here and there of what this new economy looks
like. We have the technologies to build itincluding,
for example, gas-electric hybrid cars, advanced-design wind
turbines, highly efficient refrigerators, and water-efficient irrigation
systems. We can see how to build the
new economy brick by brick. With each wind farm,
rooftop solar panel, paper recycling facility, bicycle
path, and reforestation program, we move
closer to an economy that can
sustain economic
progress. If, instead, we continue on the current economic path,
the question is not whether environmental deterioration will lead
to economic decline, but when.
We recently entered a new century, but we are also entering a
new global order, one where the collisions between our
demands and the Earth's capacity to satisfy them
are becoming daily events. It may be another crop-withering heat wave,
another village abandoned because of invading sand dunes, or
another aquifer pumped dry.
If we do not act quickly
to reverse the trends, these seemingly
isolated events will come more and more ffrequently, accumulating and
combining to determine our future.
Resources
that accumulated over eons of geological time are
being consumed in a single human
lifespan. We are crossing natural thresholds that we cannot see and
violating deadlines that we do not recognize. These deadlines, determined by
nature, are not politically negotiable.
Nature has many
thresholds that we discover only
when it is too late. In our fast-forward
civilization, we
learn that we have crossed
natural thresholds only after the fact,
leaving little time to adjust. For example, when
we exceed the sustainable catch of a fishery,
the stocks begin to shrink. Once this natural threshold is crossed, we have a
limited time in which to back off and lighten the
catch. If we fail to meet this deadline, breeding
populations shrink to where the
fishery is no longer viable, and it collapses.
The
trees went first, then the soil, and finally
the civilization itself.
To
archeologists, the sequence is all too familiar.
Our situation
today is far more challenging because in
addition to shrinking forests and eroding soils, we must deal with falling
water tables, more
frequent crop-withering heat waves, collapsing fisheries, expanding deserts, deteriorating
rangelands, dying coral reefs, melting glaciers, rising seas, more-powerful
storms, disappearing
species, and, soon, shrinking oil
supplies.
"We are dependent on oil for our food,
transportation, commerce, medicine, communication, sanitation and the job
specialization that provides the vast majority of our livelihoods. Breaking our
dependency will involve wholesale change in the way we live and who we are as a
people." - Sara Anne Edwards
Although these ecologically destructive trends have been evident for
some time, and some have been reversed at the national level, not one has been
reversed at the global level. The bottom
line is that the Earth is in what
ecologists call an "overshoot-and-collapse"
mode. Demand has exceeded the sustainable
yield of natural
systems at the local level countless
times in the past. Now, for the first
time, it is doing so at the global level. Forests are shrinking for the
Earth as a whole. Fishery collapses are widespread.
(Harvests of nearly 30 percent of commercial seafood
species already have collapsed. Harvests of
less than 10 percent of historic highs is
considered a collapse. In 1950, only six
commercial seafood species
worldwide had collapsed. By 2003, more than 2,200 species - 29 percent of all
commercially fished species on
Earth - had collapsed.)
Grasslands are deteriorating on every continent.
Water tables are falling in many countries.
Carbon dioxide emissions exceed
carbon dioxide fixation everywhere.
In 2002, a team of scientists led by Mathis
Wackernagel, who now heads the Global Footprint Network, concluded that
humanities collective demands first
surpassed the Earth's regenerative capacity
around 1980. Their study, published by the American National Academy of Sciences,
estimated that global demands in 1999 exceeded that
capacity by 20 percent. The gap, growing
by 1 percent or so a year, is now much wider.
We are meeting current demands by
consuming the
Earth's natural assets, setting the stage for decline
and collapse. In a rather ingenious approach to calculating the
human physical presence on the
Earth, Paul MacCready, the founder and Chairman
of AeroVironment and designer of the first
solar-powered aircraft, has calculated the weight of all vertebrates on the
land and in the air. He notes that when agriculture began,
humans, their livestock, and pets
together accounted for less than 0.1 percent of the total.
Today, he estimates, this group accounts
for 98 percent of the Earth's total vertebrate
biomass, leaving only 2 percent for the wild portion, the latter including all
the deer, wildebeests, elephants, great cats, birds, small mammals, and so
forth.
Ecologists are
intimately familiar with the overshoot and collapse phenomenon.
One of their favorite examples began in 1944, when the Coast Guard
introduced 29 reindeer on remote St. Matthew
Island in the Bering Sea to serve as the backup food source for the 19 men
operating a station there. After World War
II ended a year later, the base was closed and the men left the
island. When U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service biologist David Kline visited St.
Matthew Island in 1957, he discovered a thriving
population of 1,350 reindeer
feeding on the four-inch-thick mat of lichen that covered the
332-square-kilometer (128-square-mile) island.
In the absence of any predators, the
population was exploding. By
1963, it had reached 6,000. He returned to St.
Matthew Island in 1966 and discovered an
island strewn with reindeer skeletons and not
much lichen. Only 42 of the reindeer survived:
41 females and 1 not entirely healthy male. There were no fawns. By 1980 or so,
the remaining reindeer had died off. Like the deer on
St. Matthew Island, we too are overconsuming
our natural
resources.
Overshoot leads sometimes to decline and sometimes
to a complete collapse. It is not always clear which it will be.
In the former, a remnant of the population or
economic activity survives in a resource-depleted
environment. For example, as the
environmental resource base of
Easter Island in the South Pacific
deteriorated, its population
declined from a peak of 20,000 several centuries ago to
today's
population of fewer than 4,000.
In contrast, the 500-year-old Norse settlement in Greenland collapsed during
the 1400s, disappearing entirely in the face of
environmental adversity.
As
of 2005, some 42 countries have population that are stable or
declining slightly in size as a result of falling birth rates. But now for the
first time ever, demographers are projecting
population declines in some
countries because of rising death rates, among them Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia,
and Swaziland.
In the absence of an accelerated shift to smaller
families, this list of countries is likely to grow much longer in the years
immediately ahead.
The most recent mid-level U.N. demographic
projections show the Earth's
population increasing from 6.1
billion in 2000 to 9.1 billion in 2050. But such an increase seems highly
unlikely, considering the deterioration in life-support
systems now under way in across the
face of the Earth.
We thus face two urgent major challenges:
restructuring the global economy and stabilizing the Earth's human
population. Even
as the economy's
environmental support
systems are deteriorating
oil is being pumped with reckless
abandon. Leading geologists now think
oil production may soon peak and turn downward.
This collision between the ever-growing demand for
oil and the Earth's finite resources is but the latest in a long
series of collisions. Although no one knows
exactly when oil
production will peak, supply is already
lagging behind demand, driving prices upward.
"One of the realities
global inhabitants face but don't seem to realize is oil depletion. The
world is currently using about 3% of the remaining oil
supplies annually. If global oil usage remains constant over the next 10 years,
the annual worldwide depletion rate will rise to 4.5% just because of the
diminishing oil reserves. Some say the usage rate would rise because of the
increased demand in China and India. Others say it would fall because of the
increasing difficulty and expense of extracting the remaining oil. In either
case, pressure for reduced U.S. oil usage will be great." - Dwayne Deets
In this new global order, the price of
oil begins to set the price of food,
not so much because of rising fuel costs for farmers and food processors but
more because almost everything we eat can be converted into fuel for
cars.
The International Monetary Fund
recorded a world wide 23% rise in food prices between January 2006 and June
2007.
In this new global order
of high oil prices basic food
commodities such as wheat, corn, soybeans and sugarcane will also become major
energy sources. Wheat going into
the commodities market can be converted into
bread for food or ethanol for gas stations. Soybean
oil can go onto
market shelves or it can go to gas stations
to be used as diesel fuel.
In effect, owners of the
Earth's 800 million cars will be competing for
food resources with the 1.2 billion
people living on less than a dollar
a day.
"The government is
overspending on the defense budget and underspending on more effective
ways to bring peace and stability to the Earth. Why are we fueling what looks to be an
unending "war on
terror" when we could spend a fraction of it on helping people struggling
with extreme poverty, people
living on less than $1 a
day? What people don't realize is that, by
helping the poor, we create stability and
promote democracy in Third World countries without
shedding any blood." - Jackie
SteinleFaced with a seemingly insatiable demand for automotive
fuel, farmers will want to clear more and more of the remaining tropical
forests to produce sugarcane, oil
palms, and other high yielding fuel
crops. Already, billions of dollars
of private capital are moving
into this effort.
In effect, the rising price
of oil is generating a massive new
threat to the Earth's
genetic diversity. As the
demand for farm commodities climbs, it is shifting the focus of
international trade concerns from
the traditional goal of assured
access to markets to one of assured access
to supplies. Countries heavily dependent on imported grain for food are
beginning to worry that buyers for fuel
distilleries may outbid them for supplies. As
oil security deteriorates, so, too,
will food security. As the role of oil
recedes, the process of globalization will be reversed in
fundamental
ways. As humanity turned to
oil during the last century, the energy
economy became increasingly globalized, with the
people of Earth depending heavily on a handful of
countries in the Middle East for energy supplies.
Now as humanity turns to wind, solar cells, and
geothermal energy in this century, we are witnessing the localization of the
global energy economy.
The globalization of the Earth's food
economy will also be reversed, as the higher price
of oil raises the cost of transporting
food internationally.
In response, food
production and
consumption will become much more
localized, leading to diets based more on locally produced
food and seasonal availability.
The
Earth is facing the emergence of a geopolitics of
scarcity, which is already highly visible in the efforts by
China, India, and
other
developing countries to ensure their
access to oil supplies. In
the future, the issue will be who gets
access to not only Middle Eastern oil
but also Brazilian ethanol and North American grain. Pressures on land and
water resources, already excessive in most
places, will intensify further as the demand for biofuels climbs.
This geopolitics of scarcity is an early
manifestation of civilizations in an
overshoot and collapse mode, much like the one that emerged among the Mayan
cities competing for food in that
civilization's waning years. You do not
need to be an ecologist to see that if recent
environmental trends continue, the
global economy eventually
will come crashing down.It is not knowledge that we lack.
At
issue is whether national
governments can stabilize
population and
restructure the
economy before time
runs out.
Looking at what is happening in China helps us to see the urgency of acting
quickly.
For many years environmentalists have pointed to
America as the Earth's leading
consumer, noting that 5 percent of
the Earth's people were
consuming nearly a third of the
Earth's resources. Although that was
true for some time, it no longer is.
China has replaced America as the leading
consumer of basic
commodities.Among the five basic food, energy, and
industrial commodities grain and
meat, oil and coal, and steelconsumption in
China has eclipsed that of
America in all but
oil. China has opened a wide lead with grain,
consuming 380 million tons in 2005
versus 260 million tons in America. Among the
big three grains, China leads in the
consumption of both wheat and rice
and trails America only in
corn.
Although eating hamburgers is a defining element of the American lifestyle, China's 2005 meat
consumption of 67 million tons is far
above the 38 million tons eaten in America.
While American meat intake is rather evenly
distributed between beef, pork, and poultry, in China pork totally dominates. Indeed, half the
Earth's pigs are now found in
China.
With
oil, America was still solidly in the lead in 2004,
using more than three times as much as China
- 20.4 million barrels per day versus 6.5
million barrels. But American
oil use expanded by only 15 percent
between 1994 and 2004, while use in China
more than doubled.
Having recently eclipsed Japan as an
oil
consumer,
China now trails only
America.
Energy use in
China also obviously includes coal, which
supplies nearly two thirds of the China's
energy.
China's annual
burning of 960 million tons easily exceeds the
560 million tons used in America.
With
this level of coal use and with oil and
natural gas use also climbing fast, it is only a matter of
time before China's carbon dioxide emissions match those of
America.
Then the
Earth will have two major countries driving
climate change.
China's consumption of steel, a basic indicator
of industrial
development, is now nearly two and a
half times that of America: 258 million tons
to 104 million tons in 2003.
As China
has moved into the construction phase of development, building hundreds of
thousands of factories and high-rise apartment and office buildings, steel
consumption has climbed to levels
never seen in any country. With consumer goods,
China leads in the number of cell phones,
television sets, and refrigerators.
America still leads in the number of personal
computers and automobiles, though likely not for much longer.
That China has
overtaken America in
consumption of basic
resources gives us license to ask the
next question. What if China
catches up with America in
consumption per person?
If
the Chinese economy continues to grow at 8 percent a year, by
2031 income per person will equal that in
America in 2004. If we further assume that
consumption
patterns of China's affluent
population in 2031, by then
1.45 billion, will be roughly similar to those of Americans in 2004, we have a startling answer to
our question.
At the current annual American grain
consumption of 900 kilograms per
person, including industrial use,
China's grain
consumption in 2031 would
equal roughly two thirds of the current
world grain harvest.
If paper use per person in
China in 2031 reaches the current
American level, this
translates into 305 million tons of
paperdouble existing
world production
of 161 million tons.
There go the Earth's
forests.
And if oil
consumption per person reaches the
American level by 2031,
China will use 99 million barrels of
oil a day.
The Earth is currently producing 84 million barrels a
day and may never produce much more.
This helps explain why China's
fast-expanding use of oil is already
helping to create a politics of scarcity.
If
China one day should have three cars for every four people,
as America now does,
China's fleet would total 1.1 billion
vehicles, well beyond the current world fleet of 800
million. Providing the roads, highways, and parking lots for such a fleet would
require paving an area roughly equal to
China's land in rice, its principal food
staple.
The inevitable conclusion is that there are not
enough resources for
China to reach American consumption levels.
"We are shipping our middle class jobs to countries
that make almost no products for their citizens; instead, they export back to
us. Meanwhile, all we can sell them is our means of production. Farmers call
what we have been doing "eating our seed corn." As our depleted middle class
reaches a tipping point, we will no longer be able to support the trade
imbalances.: - Larry Severson
The western
economic model - the fossil fuel based, automobile
centered, throwaway economy - will not
work for China's
1.45 billion in 2031. If it does not work for
China, it will not work for India
either, which by 2031 is projected to have even more people than
China. Nor will it work for the
other 3 billion people in
developing countries who are also
dreaming the "American
Dream." And in an increasingly integrated global economy, where
countries everywhere are competing for the same
resourcesthe same
oil, grain, and iron ore - the existing
economic model will not work for industrial countries either.
Our twenty-first century global civilization
is not the first to face the prospect of
environmentally induced
economic decline. The question is how
we will respond. We do have one unique asset at our
commandan archeological record that
shows us what happened to earlier civilizations that got into
environmental trouble and failed to
respond. As Jared Diamond points out in Collapse, some of the early
societies that were in environmental trouble were able to
change their ways in time to avoid decline and collapse.
Six centuries
ago, for example, Icelanders realized that overgrazing on their
grass covered highlands was leading to extensive
soil loss from the inherently thin soils of
the region. Rather than lose the grasslands and
face economic decline, farmers joined together to
determine how many sheep the highlands could sustain and then allocated quotas among
themselves, thus preserving their grasslands and
avoiding a tragic loss in
value of the commons.
The Icelanders understood
the consequences of overgrazing and reduced their sheep numbers to a level that
could be sustained.
We understand the
consequences of burning fossil fuels and the
resulting carbon dioxide buildup in
the atmosphere. Unlike the Icelanders who were able to restrict their livestock
numbers, we have not been able to restrict our
carbon dioxide emissions. Not all
societies have fared as well as the Icelanders,
whose economy continues to produce wool and to
thrive.
The early Sumerian civilization of the fourth
millennium BC was an extraordinary one, advancing far beyond any that had
existed before. Its carefully engineered irrigation
system gave rise to a highly
productive agriculture, one that enabled
farmers to produce a food surplus, supporting formation of the first cities.
Managing the irrigation system required
a sophisticated social organization. The Sumerians had the first cities and the
first written language, the cuneiform
script.
By any measure it was an extraordinary
civilization, but there was an
environmental flaw in the
design of its irrigation
system, one that would eventually
undermine its food supply. The water that
backed up behind dams built across the Euphrates was diverted onto the land
through a network of gravity-fed canals. Some water was used by the crops, some evaporated, and
some percolated downward. In this region, where underground drainage was weak,
percolation slowly raised the water table. As
the water climbed to within inches of the
surface, it began to evaporate into the atmosphere, leaving behind salt. Over
time, the accumulation of salt on the soil surface lowered its
productivity.
As salt
accumulated and wheat yields declined, the Sumerians shifted to barley, a more
salt-tolerant plant. This postponed Sumer's decline, but it was treating the
symptoms, not the cause, of falling crop yields. As salt concentrations
continued to build, the yields of barley eventually declined also. The
resultant shrinkage of the food supply undermined the economic foundation of this once-great
civilization. As land
productivity declined, so did the
civilization.
Archeologist Robert
McC. Adams has studied the site of ancient Sumer on the central
flood plain of the Euphrates River, an empty,
desolate area now outside the frontiers of cultivation. He describes how the
"tangled dunes, long disused canal levees, and the rubble-strewn mounds of
former settlement contribute only low, featureless relief. Vegetation is
sparse, and in many areas it is almost wholly absent....Yet at one time, here
lay the core, the heartland, the oldest urban, literate
civilization on Earth."
The New World counterpart to
Sumer is the Mayan
civilization that
developed in the lowlands of what is
now Guatemala. It flourished from AD 250 until its collapse around
AD 900. Like the Sumerians, the Mayans
had developed a sophisticated, highly
productive agriculture, this one based on raised plots of earth surrounded by
canals that supplied water.
As with Sumer, the Mayan demise was apparently
linked to a failing food supply. For this New World
civilization, it was deforestation and
soil erosion that undermined agriculture. Changes in climate may also have
played a role. Food shortages apparently triggered civil
conflict among the various Mayan cities as
they competed for food. Today this region
is covered by jungle, reclaimed by
nature.
During the later centuries of the
Mayan civilization, a new
society was evolving on faraway
Easter Island, some 166 square kilometers of
land in the South Pacific roughly 3,200 kilometers west of South America and
2,200 kilometers from Pitcairn Island, the
nearest habitation. Settled around AD 400, this
civilization flourished on a volcanic
island with rich soils and lush vegetation,
including trees that grew 25 meters tall with trunks 2 meters in diameter.
Archeological records indicate that the islanders ate mainly seafood, principally
dolphinsa mammal that could only be caught by harpoon from large
sea-going canoes.29 The Easter Island
society flourished for several centuries,
reaching an estimated population of 20,000. As its human
numbers gradually increased, tree cutting exceeded the
sustainable yield of forests. Eventually the
large trees that were needed to build the sturdy canoes disappeared, depriving
islanders of access to the dolphins and
dramatically shrinking their food supply. The archeological record shows that
at some point human bones became intermingled with the dolphin bones,
suggesting a desperate society that had resorted
to cannibalism. Today the
island has some 2,000 residents.
One unanswerable question about these earlier
civilizations was whether they
knew what was causing their decline.
Did the Sumerians understand
that the rising salt content in the soil from water evaporation was reducing their wheat
yields? If they knew, were they simply unable
to muster the political support needed to lower
water tables, just as the world today is
struggling unsuccessfully to lower carbon dioxide emissions?

These are just three of the many early
civilizations that moved onto an
economic path that nature could not sustain.
We, too, are on such a
path. Any one of several
trends of environmental degradation
could undermine civilization as we know
it. Just as the irrigation system that
defined the early Sumerian
economy had a flaw, so too does the fossil fuel
energy system that defines our modern
economy.
For them it was a rising
water table that undermined the
economy; for us it is rising CO2 levels that
threaten to disrupt economic progress. In both
cases, the trend is invisible.
Whether it resulted from the salting of Sumer's cropland, the deforestation and
soil erosion of the Mayans, or the depleted forests and
loss of the distant
water fishing capacity of the
Easter Islanders, collapse of these early
civilizations appears to have been
associated with a decline in food supply.
Today the
annual addition of more than 70 million people to a world population of over 6 billion at a
time when water tables are falling,
temperatures are rising, and oil
supplies will soon be shrinking suggests that the food supply again may be the
vulnerable link between the environment and the
economy.The
first big test of the international
community's capacity to manage scarcity may come with
oil or it could come with grain. If the
latter is the case, this could occur when China - whose grain harvest fell by 34 million
tons, or 9 percent, between 1998 and 2005turns to the
world market for
massive imports of 30 million, 50 million, or possibly even 100 million tons of
grain per year.
Demand on this scale could quickly
overwhelm world
grain markets. When this happens,
China will have to look to
America, which controls the world's
grain exports of over 40 percent of some 200 million tons.
This will
pose a fascinating geopolitical situation. More than 1.3 billion
Chinese consumers, who had an estimated
$160-billion trade surplus with America in
2004 - enough to buy the entire American grain
harvest twice - will be competing
with Americans for
American grain, driving up
American food prices.
In such a
situation 30 years ago, America simply
restricted exports. But China is now
banker to America, underwriting much of the massive
American fiscal deficit with monthly purchases
of US Treasury bonds.
Within the next few years,
America may be loading one or two ships a
day with grain for
China. This long line of ships stretching
across the Pacific, like an umbilical cord providing nourishment, will
intimately link the two economies. Managing this
flow of grain so as to simultaneously satisfy the food needs of
consumers in both countries, at a
time when ethanol fuel distilleries are taking a
growing share of the American grain harvest,
may become one of the leading foreign policy
challenges of this new century.
The way the Earth
accommodates the vast projected needs of China, India,
and other
developing countries for grain,
oil, and
other
resources will help determine how the
world addresses the stresses associated with
outgrowing the Earth. How
low-income, importing countries fare in this
competition for grain will also
tell us something about future political
stability. And, finally, the American response
to China's growing demands for grain even as
they drive up food prices for American
consumers will tell us much about the
capacity of countries to manage the emerging politics of scarcity. The most imminent risk is
that China's entry into the
global market,
combined with the growing diversion of farm commodities to biofuels, will drive
grain prices so high that many low-income developing countries will not be able to
import enough grain.
This in turn could lead to escalating food prices
and political instability on a scale that will
disrupt global economic
progress.
The fates of all the peoples of
Earth are intertwined.
This interdependence can be managed to our mutual
benefit only if we recognize that the term "in the national interest" is in
many ways obsolete.
The question facing
governments is whether they can
respond quickly enough to prevent threats from becoming catastrophes. The
peoples of Earth have precious little
experience in responding to aquifer
depletion, rising temperatures, expanding deserts, melting polar ice caps, and
a shrinking oil supply.
These new trends will fully challenge the capacity of our
political institutions and
leadership. In times of crisis,
societies sometimes have a Nero as a
leaders and sometimes a Winston Churchill.
The central challenge, the key to building the new economy, is getting the
market to tell the
ecological truth.
The dysfunctional global
economy of today has been shaped by distorted
market prices that do not incorporate
environmental costs. Many of our
environmental travails are the
result of severe market distortions.
One of these distortions became abundantly clear in the summer of 1998
when China's Yangtze River valley, home to
400 million people, was wracked by some of the worst flooding in history. The resulting damages of $30
billion exceeded the value of the country's
annual rice harvest.
After several weeks of flooding, the government in Beijing announced in
mid-August a ban on tree cutting in the
Yangtze River basin. It justified the ban by noting that
trees standing are worth three times as much
as trees cut. The flood control
services provided by forests were
three times as valuable as the lumber in the trees.
In effect, the
market price was off by a factor of three!
With this analysis, no one could
economically justify cutting
trees in the basin.
A similar
situation exists with gasoline. In
America, the gasoline pump price was over $2
per gallon in mid 2005 and $3 per gallon by mid 2006. But this reflects only
the cost of pumping the oil, refining
it into gasoline, and delivering the gas to stations. It does not include the
costs of tax
subsidies to the
oil industry, such as the
oil depletion allowance; the
subsidies for the extraction,
production, and use of petroleum; the
military costs of
protecting access to
oil supplies (the war in Iraq cost up
to 02/02/08 was $491 billion -
total current
expenditures); the health care costs
for treating respiratory illnesses ranging from
asthma to emphysema; and, most
important, the costs of climate change. (ExxonMobil made $36 billion in 2005. In the
spring the retiring CEO of ExxonMobil
received a retirement package worth $398 million.)
If these costs, which in 1998 the International Center for
Technology Assessment calculated at roughly $9 per gallon of gasoline
burned in America, were added to the $3 cost of the
gasoline itself, motorists would pay about $12 a gallon for gas at the pump.
Filling a 20-gallon tank would cost $240. In reality, burning
gasoline is very costly, but the market
tells us it is cheap, leading to gross distortions in the
structure of the
economy.
The challenge facing
government is to incorporate such
costs into market prices by
systematically calculating them and
incorporating them as a tax on the
product to make sure its price
reflects the full costs to society. If we have
learned anything over the last few years,
it is that accounting systems that do
not tell the truth can be costly. Faulty
corporate accounting
systems that leave costs off the
books have driven some of
America's largest
corporations into
bankruptcy, costing millions of people
their lifetime savings, retirement incomes, and jobs. Distorted
global market
prices that do not incorporate major costs in the
production of various
products and the provision of
services could be even costlier.
They could lead to global
bankruptcy and economic decline.".
from Lester R. Brown, Plan B 2.0
Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble
"Our global economy is
"driving ahead full speed". As a species we are
consuming the
Earth's resources and upsetting
ecosystems much faster than
nature can rectify the damage we inflict." -
Robert Sollen
"The time is long past that we end the placing of
Band-Aids on lethal wounds. We must put the same innovation and energy that we
used in placing men on the moon into a
sustainable future. In the
balance, I have little doubt, is the
survival of civilization." - Don Malvin
"America requires
8.9 million barrels of oil a
day to fuel its vehicles. Replacing our cars
with prize-winning vehicles would reduce consumption to about 1.8 million barrels
a day. It would also slash
carbon dioxide emissions. It is
critical to American national interests to
reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
The growth of the Chinese and Indian economies
increases global demand for oil. Our
economic lifeblood must be immunized against
the dictates of a global petroleum
cartel. We must not allow our potential energy vulnerability to become our
Achilles heel. The challenge before us transcends traditional
ideological barriers. I
hope this proposal will contribute to a
much needed rethinking of our national energy policy." - Dan Lungren
See Silas Marner
See
Thabo Mbeki
See Economics
See The
Corruption of the American Dream
See The
Subversion of American Democracy |
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